Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

309
FXUS63 KARX 061804
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
104 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Other than a couple periods of low precipitation potential,
  mostly dry conditions are expected through the end of the
  week.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures through Friday with
  a brief warm up to well above normal this weekend.

- Higher precipitation potential returns early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Today - Friday: Mostly Dry, Near to Slightly Above Normal Temps

Northwest flow continues across the region through the end of
the week with little synoptic forcing expected to traverse the
mean flow resulting in an overall dry forecast for the area.
That said, there are two periods of interest from a precipitation
perspective: Wednesday night into Thursday morning and Friday.

During the first period, model guidance depicts increasing 700-
500hPa differential positive vorticity advection sneaking into
northern Wisconsin which could spark some scattered showers. The
main point of uncertainty is a lack of saturation given dry air
below 6-7kft due to fairly deep mixing expected Wednesday
afternoon. CAM guidance also keeps the bulk of any precipitation
north of our area while the 06.12z HREF/REFS suggest a 10-30%
chance for those north of I-94. As of right now, have tended
towards a dry forecast given the issues with the dry air.

The second period is also a bit uncertain. Southerly flow
developing across the central Great Plains on Friday gives way
to an 850hPa low level jet and associated warm air advection/moisture
transport that have the potential to nose into the Upper
Mississippi River Valley. However, ensemble guidance is a bit
varied on the location of precipitation associated with this
feature, if it develops at all. The European model suite is the
most excited regarding precipitation probabilities (30-50%)
given a further northward placement of the low level jet
whereas the the GEFS/AIGEFS/GEPS solutions tend a little drier
across our area (10-20%) and keep precipitation largely to our
south. Have stuck with the 06.13z NBM solution which is more in
line with the GEFS/AIGEFS/GEPS at 10-20%, but if a clear
northward trend is noted then probabilities will likely
increase.

Outside of the low potential for precipitation through the rest
of the week, a weak surface front moving through the region
today/tonight will shift our winds to the northwest and usher in
some slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday.
Depending on how far northward the low level jet is able to make
it, a warming trend may be able to start as early as Friday
which is currently the favored solution of the 06.13z NBM.

This Weekend - Early Next Week: Brief Warm Up, Precipitation
Potential Returns

The upper level synoptic pattern begins to break down this
weekend as ridging across the western United States begins to
shift eastward while model guidance depicts a longwave trough
moving onshore the West Coast. Rising heights associated with
the approaching ridge and the aforementioned southerly flow
associated with cyclogenesis occurring as the trough moves
onshore should lead to a bit of a warm up by this weekend with
the 06.13z NBM mean suggesting temperatures climb into the mid
to upper 70s areawide Saturday, 15-20 degrees above normal for
this time of year, while some locations possibly reach 80
degrees (40-60%). Fairly little spread exists in the 25th-75th
percentiles of the NBM membership, backed up by other ensemble
suites such as the GEFS/EPS/GEPS and their AI equivalents, so
confidence in these warmer temperatures is high.

Heading into early next week, the potential for precipitation
returns to the Upper Midwest, but confidence in the overall
forecast is not very high at this point as quite a bit of
variability exists amongst the previously mentioned ensemble
suites regarding timing and location of precipitation. That
said, a fair number of members do suggest there is some
potential for precipitation to start off the new week, so have
continued with the 06.13z NBM mean which is around 20-50%.
Cooler temperatures also look to make a return, falling back
towards normal by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions should persist over the next 24 hours. The wind
will remain out of the southwest this afternoon with gusts up to
20-30 kts. The wind will decrease down to 10 kts or less around
sunset this evening and will eventually rotate clockwise to out
of the northwest behind a weak cold front. Mostly clear skies
are expected but some high clouds will continue to stream in
over the region.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Falkinham
AVIATION...Muscha